Catalan independists gather in Playa de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain, on 2 October 2017 to celebrate the result of their referendum. NurPhoto/Press Association. All rights reserved. And now what ? What will happen on and after October 2, after the referendum organised by the autonomous Catalan government and its failed repression by the central Madrid government ? For weeks analysts, observers and media throughout Spain and Catalonia have been asking – with growing anxiety – that question while the battle between the two camps was going into crescendo. Without being able to stop this dangerous spiral.
Now the dice have been cast. The Catalan government has succeeded in organising its own referendum and in carrying 90% of the 42% (figures given by Barcelona) who wished to, and managed to cast their votes. Yet Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s decision to respond by sending as many police forces and judges as possible, blocking the regional budget, censoring the Internet, arresting officials to crush this – constitutionally illegal but politically understandable – initiative has made the legal elections requirements impossible to fulfil only to leave the results open to discussion.
Multiple failure
Rajoy has shown himself unable to foresee the crisis which has been brewing ever since the Constitutional Tribunal invalidated in 2010 the new autonomy statute (Estatut) voted by the Spanish Parliament, and validated by the Catalans in a referendum giving them the right to be called a nation within Spain. Unless he deliberately wanted to play a strategy of tension to consolidate his shaky power – he lacks a majority in the Cortes – tainted by the massive corruption of his Popular Party. Moreover, his heavy-handed strategy of opposing the referendum by force has failed, as 2.2 million Catalans out of 7 managed to cast their ballot.
