Protest back in 2015 to demand fair elections in 2016. AP Photo/Esteban Felix
On the first Sunday of November this year, Nicaragua will go to the polls. Its president, and a 92-member National Assembly, are up for election. The revolutionary ex-comandante Daniel Ortega will run for a third successive term since his return to executive power in 2006. His influence is far-reaching, the support base of his Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) solid. The party has entrenched itself among a fragile state, and it continues to be seen by many as the only one on the side of Nicaragua’s abundant poor. The institutions which facilitated the fraud of 2011 are identical. Despite all of this, there are reasons to believe that 2016 will be no verbatim replay of elections past.
Firstly, because the expectations of potential international observers will, this year, be greater felt. The centre-left Uruguayan Luis Amalgro’s vocal leadership of the Organization of American States (OAS) has bolstered that body’s relevance in recent months. As the source of over half of Nicaragua’s aid, the European Union (EU) will also expect an invite to November’s party. And with over a third of Nicaragua’s oil now coming from the United States, its strengthened influence will be as unwelcome as it is unavoidable.
