USS Boxer. Flickr/U.S. Pacific Fleet. Some rights reserved.The United States-led air-war against ISIS has now lasted for 20 months, with the Pentagon reporting that its 10,000 air-raids have killed 28,000 of the movement's supporters. There is, however, growing evidence that ISIS leaders had anticipated such an onslaught, and that as long ago as 2014 – when their advance across much of Syria and Iraq accelerated – they had begun preparing for attacks against western targets, not least in Europe (see "The war on terror: an interim report", 7 April 2016).
In the same period, attacks by ISIS and its affiliates have intensified. The wide-ranging incidents include those in Tunisia (the Bardo museum in Tunis and the Sousse beach resort), several bombings in Turkey, the destruction of a Russian Metrojet airliner departing from Sinai, Egypt, and the multiple assaults in Paris and Brussels.
ISIS has certainly been pushed back too in Iraq and Syria, although the picture is mixed. Iraq's army has found it very difficult to make any progress against ISIS forces outside Mosul, and the group has actually retaken some towns in northern Syria.
