Wikimedia Commons.An interim report of the condition of ISIS in early April found a mixed picture. On the one hand the movement was suffering heavy losses, with as many as 28,000 of its supporters having been killed in the intensive United States-led air war of the previous 20 months. It was also having to cope with the increasing use of western ground troops in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, there were indications that substantial western military action against ISIS elements in Libya was becoming likely (see "The war on terror: an interim report", 7 April 2016).
On the other hand, the analysis suggested that ISIS was proving resilient in the face of these challenges. It had been able to extend its operations to western targets, including the tourist attacks in Tunisia in 2015, and the major attacks in Paris (twice) and Brussels. The key piece of evidence arising here was that this change of strategy had been decided before the air-war started, indicating that ISIS paramilitary planners had thought ahead as to how to respond to expected western action.
A more recent column highlighted the increased US involvement in the ground war, not least the forward-basing of marine-corps artillery units to support Iraqi army forces attempting to take territory from ISIS close to the northern Iraqi city of Mosul (see "America vs ISIS, the prospect", 15 April 2016). A related briefing from Oxford Research Group in April had highlighted another factor: the way in which so many European states were turning their backs on often desperate refugees. Some of their governments believed that measures such as razor-wire, teargas, water-cannon and other paraphernalia of public-order control were necessary, but the impact across the Islamic world would be almost wholly negative: as yet one more example of the western hatred of Islam.
