U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer. Flickr/DVIDSHUB. Some rights reserved.The war against ISIS has seen 18 months of of airstrikes by United States-led coalition forces in both Iraq and Syria. An even more concentrated period is now under way, with signs of greater use of special forces by western militaries and pledges of ground troops by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And while western governments continue to claim that there are no "boots on the ground”, there is clear evidence that special forces from coalition states are involved in combat.
An already complex situation is made hugely more so by intensive Russian air operations. Russia's determination to have a major impact on the course of the war and its outcome is reflected in its deployment of four of the country's small stock of modern Su-35S multi-role strike-aircraft, the latter supplementing a force of no less than 36 other types. The Russian assaults appear to be causing high civilian casualties, which does much to explain the desperate movement of a new tranche of refugees towards Turkey. They also may become the crucial factor in allowing the Assad regime to survive, while having little impact on ISIS.
For its part, ISIS's main concern is the US-led air campaign in both Iraq and Syria. By late 2014, the Pentagon was claiming that over 20,000 ISIS supporters had been killed by its air war. If this estimate is remotely accurate, then ISIS should be very badly affected and in retreat from much of the territory it holds.
