Smoke from IS positions outside Fallujah, May 2016. Khalid Mohammed/AP/Press Association Images. All rights reserved.In Libya and Iraq, military campaigns against ISIS are intensifying. But in assessing the movement's condition, a wider view is also needed.
On the second day of the new round of air-attacks against ISIS forces in the Libyan coastal city of Sirte, United States marine corps AV8B strike-aircraft were launched from the USS Wasp, an amphibious-warfare vessel. Military sources say that the operation would most likely last weeks, and only end when those Libyan militias loosely aligned to the government of national accord in Tripoli succeed in taking control of the city.
When the current assault on Sirte started in May 2016, rapid initial progress was reported. The city, it seems, would soon be liberated. In practice the assault slowed to a crawl as the government-backed forces suffered 300 killed and many wounded, hence the need for US air-power. It now seems likely that ISIS has already withdrawn many of its paramilitaries and dispersed them to other towns and cities. Thus, even if Sirte is taken in the coming weeks, it will be just one episode in an ongoing conflict.
