The military campaign against Islamic State in Iraq continues. Amid competing claims made by the various parties to the conflict (Iraq, Iran, the United States and its coalition partners) it is difficult to assess the current status of IS in the country. US defence sources have been notably cautious. It is certainly the case that it the movement is making progress elsewhere, including new territorial gains in Syria and a linked group claiming responsibility for the museum attack in Tunis on 18 March 2015.
The contest over Tikrit, however, offers clues about the possible course of the war. An Iraqi operation to retake the city, north of Baghdad, was announced in early March. Three indicators were given: it would be purely an Iraqi effort, the United States would not be involved, and sufficient forces would be deployed to enable the city to be seized quickly.
In the event, early reports from Baghdad did speak of successes. But it also became clear that most of the attacking forces were not Iraqi army units but Shi’a militia supported by advisors, equipment and quite possibly special-force units from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
