Fire in Mosul, Iraq, on March 26, 2017. Iraqi forces renewed their assault in Mosul's Old City, resulting in heavy civilian casualties. NurPhoto/SIPA USA/PA Images. All rights reserved.The fall of Mosul to Iraqi government forces may still be weeks away. As it draws near, huge and unforeseen consequences are becoming steadily clearer, whose consequences will have an impact for years to come. These relate to two factors: the greatly increased use of firepower by United States forces at the behest of Trump's White House, and ISIS's current decisions about its future strategy and tactics.
Some context is needed. When the coalition moved towards eastern Mosul in mid-October 2016, early progress was followed by heavy losses for the Iraqi army’s elite counter-terror service (also known as the "golden division"). Those losses were one reason why the army took three months, until late January 2017, to retake that less significant part of the city. There followed a month’s pause while the forces regrouped and were reinforced for the assault on western Mosul. It began in the third week of February.
The operation continues a trend seen towards the end of the battle for eastern Mosul: a marked increase in the tempo of artillery-support and aerial-bombing raids. These have undoubtedly inflicted losses on ISIS, but they have also caused many more civilian casualties.
